AIZ Decision Brief — research Assurant before you trade it

Business quality of Assurant: 100/100

The Berkshire-style checklist scores AIZ in the "very high" band — clears nearly every rule-based Berkshire-style criterion — typically durable profitability, a manageable debt structure, and strong cash conversion over the scanned window.

Important: this score measures business quality only, not whether today's price is fair. A 90+ quality stock can still be expensive enough to be a bad deal, and a 40-quality stock can be cheap enough to compensate you for the risk. That separation is exactly why the workflow treats quality and price as two different questions that only meet at the valuation ceiling.

The valuation ceiling: the price you shouldn't pay past

Working value analysis doesn't ask "will Assurant grow?" It asks "what does $285.41 already assume?" Our two-stage residual-income model turns those assumptions into a single ceiling number. Below the ceiling you are paying a discount; above it you are paying for hope. Neither is automatically wrong — the point is knowing which one you're doing.

Run AIZ's numbers yourself at the free Berkshire intrinsic value calculator — every input is documented, and you can adjust each assumption to match your own view.

How to read the LONG signal on AIZ

• Status: LONG — the timing engine saw a constructive structure pass its criteria as of scan 2026-08-27.
• Age: 266 bars — an aging signal: the original reason may have expired, so run a fresh brief before relying on it.
• uPnL +35.9% · total return +35.9% — cumulative performance of the signal inside our system. It measures how the engine has behaved historically, not a forecast for you.

The right order: quality passes first → the ceiling is acceptable → thesis breaks are written down → then look at the signal. Looking at the signal first and hunting for reasons afterward is confirmation bias, and it gets everyone.

What would break the Assurant thesis (a template for Financials)

Before investing real money, write your own break-conditions down. Common templates analysts use for Financials names:

1. Asset quality (NPL) deteriorates for 2-3 quarters beyond the industry pace
2. Net interest margin squeezes hard from deposit competition
3. New regulation hits the core profit engine directly
4. Growth leans on lending standards quietly getting looser

The point is not the list above — it's that you write yours before buying. Conditions written while you own nothing are always colder than conditions written while you are down.

Financials peers on Balance Labs (US)

• Arch Capital (ACGL) — quality 100 · signal LONG · compare AIZ vs ACGL
• Aflac (AFL) — quality 100 · signal LONG · compare AIZ vs AFL
• AIG (AIG) — quality 100 · signal LONG · compare AIZ vs AIG

Terms used on this page

• Quality score — a 0-100 rule-based Berkshire-style checklist grade (earnings consistency, debt structure, cash conversion). AIZ: 100 as of scan 2026-08-27.
• Valuation ceiling — the highest price your thesis can pay without underpaying for risk, computed with a documented two-stage residual-income model.
• Signal / Side — the timing engine's status as of the snapshot: LONG, SHORT, or WAIT. AIZ: LONG.
• uPnL — unrealized profit/loss accumulated by an open signal, measured from its entry price. Not your personal return.
• Age (bars) — price bars since the signal started. AIZ: 266.
• Thesis break — a measurable event that should change your mind. Written before you buy, not after.